While there is a lot of promise surrounding year 2 of the Shanahan/Lynch era, there are also a lot of questions. The team is coming off a 6-10 year where they won the last 5 games under newly acquired quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo. Jimmy G posted a 96.2 QB rating after being acquired mid-season and revitalized the franchise. He was signed to a massive extension in the offseason to headline a group of acquisitions that included Richard Sherman, Jerick McKinnon and first round pick Mike McGlinchey.
Here are the tiers of how the season could play out, and my projections for how it really goes.
Back to the Drawing Board:
The offense doesn’t make many strides in the second year under Shanahan. The offensive line doesn’t gel and McGlinchey has a tough rookie year. Because of the O-Line struggles, Jerick McKinnon and the screen game have a hard time getting going. The deep passing game isn’t able to flourish as well. The 49ers are able to move the ball on offense, but have a hard time in the red zone finishing drives.
On defense the pass rush has a hard time generating much pressure on the quarterback. This puts added pressure on the secondary to perform at a high level at all times. They are able to make plays, but the defense isn’t able to get off the field on 3rd downs. DeForest Buckner and Reuben Foster are able to clog up the middle in the run game, but the passing defense ends up being the achilles heel.
Record: 6-10
Alright moving in the right direction:
With the return of Pierre Garcon and the addition of Dante Pettis, Garoppolo is able to spread the ball around and the 49ers have a top 10 offense. Matt Breida offers a nice complement in the run game and takes a big step forward in his second year. Trent Taylor continues to make big plays on third down to keep the chains moving. The team consistently gets in the red zone, but the lack of a true red zone threat leaves them kicking for 3 more often than they would like.
Cassius March or Jerry Attaochu prove to be a playmaker on 3rd down. Arik Armstead and Solomon Thomas take a step forward to form a top 10 run defense. Richard Sherman proves to be the #1 corner he signed up to be, and the rest of the secondary can stay relatively healthy. The 3rd down defense still has problems due to the lack of a dominant pass rusher, which is why they aren’t quite a top 10 defense.
Record: 9-7
Well that was fun:
The offensive line comes together nicely led by All-Pro Joe Staley. Weston Richburg proves to be the real deal and McGlinchey looks like our LT of the future and worth the #9 overall pick. Jimmy G turns into a Probowl QB and Jerick McKinnon gives them an added speed dimension to become a top 5 offensive unit. Pierre Garcon and Trent Taylor provide great route running underneath, while speedsters Pettis and Marquise Goodwin take the top off the defense. Shanahan wins coach of the year for his brilliant playcalling.
Solomon Thomas takes a huge step in his second year and looks to be a cornerstone player alongside DeForest Buckner, who continues his ascension into one of the best Defensive Linemen in the game. Foster and Malcolm Smith make plays in the pass game, while safties Jacquiski Tartt, Jimmie Ward and Adrian Colbert combine to hold up the back end of the defense.
Record: 12-4
What I think will happen:
The offense will be a top 10 unit as far as yards go, but not with points. Their lack of a Red Zone threat will come back to hurt them. Jerick McKinnon and Matt Bredia look to be a nice 1-2 punch, with McKinnon doing a lot of damage in the screen game as the year goes on. Pierre Garcon will top 1,000 yards and be one of the most targeted receivers on 3rd down in the league. Pettis will replace Taylor in the slot by the end of the year while also contributing in the return game. The offensive line will have growing pains but will continue to get better as the year goes on.
Projected Stats:
Jimmy Garoppolo Pro Bowl
65% completion 30 TD-11 INT 3,754 yards
Jet McKinnon
734 yards rushing, 589 yards receiving 7 total TD’s
Matt Bredia
621 yards rushing, 326 yards receiving 8 total TD’s
Pierre Garcon
75 catches 1,021 yards 13.8 AVG 8 TD’s
Marquise Goodwin
52 catches 873 yards 16.8 AVG 5 TD’s
George Kittle Pro Bowl
58 catches 661 yards 11.4 AVG 7 TD’s
Joe Staley Pro Bowl
Buckner and Foster will be among the top 3 at their position by the time the season is over. Rookie Fred Warner will get meaning playing time and be one of the steals of the draft. Cassius Marsh will approach ten sacks and be the situational pass rusher they really need. The secondary will show signs of greatness and other times have growing pains, but overall the amount of talent and depth will be a strength of the defense. A top 15 unit when it comes to points.
Richard Sherman Pro Bowl
11 PD 4 INT 2 FF 1 TD
Rueben Foster Pro Bowl
8 PD 3.5 sacks 2 INT 3 FF 2 FR 1 TD
DeForest Buckner Pro Bowl
9 PD 6.5 sacks 2 FF 2 FR
Cassius March
8.5 sacks 1 FF 1 FR
Solomon Thomas
6 sacks 2 FF 1 FR
Jacquiski Tartt
9 PD 3 INT 2 sacks 1 TD
Arik Armstead
5 PD 4.5 sacks 1 FF 1 FR
Record: 10-6
2nd place in NFC West
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